Word: slowdowns
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...Make no mistake, a China slowdown is approaching. Fueled by the excesses of bank lending, the mainland's runaway investment boom threatens balance and stability, and for many months authorities have been moving to bring the overheated economy under control. The objective of China's policymakers is to temper excesses by cooling the credit cycle. In recent weeks, Beijing has announced a number of administrative actions aimed at curtailing excess lending and rapid price increases at the provincial and local levels. I am convinced those actions will work and that China will experience a soft landing...
...export-centric growth model is not without pitfalls. While critical lessons have been learned from that wrenching period, Asia has lingering vulnerabilities. Two soft spots are likely to prove especially vexing: the region's dependence upon mainland China and the policies of the U.S. Federal Reserve. A looming slowdown in China's economy will undermine Asia's newest source of external demand, whereas the pending normalization of U.S. interest rates could convince American consumers, the region's oldest and most reliable source of external demand, to cut back on spending. Lacking in self-sustaining demand from homegrown consumers, Asia...
...skyrocketing oil prices and rising interest rates-is in peril. Asian stock markets are throwing off storm warnings: on May 10, the region's bourses tumbled by as much as 5.7%, registering their steepest one-day declines since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, partly because of fears that a slowdown in China could damage regional economies...
...Asia's recent export growth may have come from China, 22.7% came from Europe. Likewise, although exports to China from Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand may have grown 30% in 2003, they still accounted for only 10.7% of those countries' total exports. "Of course a slowdown carries the risk of reducing exports to China," says Susan Adams, senior resident representative of the International Monetary Fund in Vietnam. "But we don't see it as a major factor that would slow Vietnam's growth...
...Obviously, that's bad news if you happen to be in the business of selling, say, iron to China. But a slowdown would be welcome in many quarters. China's appetite for raw materials has been Brobdingnagian. The country consumed 40% of the world's cement, 31% of the world's coal and 27% of its steel last year, helping drive up prices for many commodities, such as metals, by 50%. But prices have been falling for several weeks, to the delight of many. Jeffrey Sheu, spokesman for Taiwan-based bicycle maker Giant Manufacturing, applauds China's efforts to rein...