Word: slowdowns
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...course, reviving a failed venture is dicey at any time--nearly a third of bankrupt companies undergo multiple reorganizations--let alone during the sharpest economic slowdown in a decade. And too much licensing can kill even the toniest brand's cachet, as overexposed names from Calvin Klein to Gucci can unhappily attest...
...When the slowdown hit in earnest last November and turned all the bulls to bears, bond traders got optimistic about the one thing that warms their hearts - the long-term inflation picture. Figuring the value of lent money would hold up nicely, they bid down the interest rates on the 10- and 30-year Treasury notes...
...majority of homeowners, the roof over their heads is by far their biggest investment and the most powerful determinant of how wealthy they feel - more so even than a job and definitely more than those 401(k)s that have borne the brunt of the slowdown so far. So a true real-estate bust, in the manner of the one that hit the U.S. in the late ?80s and early ?90s or the one that sent Japan careening into its coma at about the same time, would almost certainly spell recession - with a capital...
...housing bubble probably isn?t yet big enough for that. But the last upwardly-mobile source of consumer wealth to survive this slowdown is definitely under siege. Because those bond traders have lately become convinced that the economy is bottomed out, long-term interest rates have crept back up and brought mortgage rates with them, in spite of the Fed chairman?s rate-slashing leadership from the short-term side. And if refinancing slows down demand, home prices - especially at their present giddy heights - could drop like a brick. Bye bye, boom...
...Earthbound home prices alone could put a further psychological damper on consumers who are already forsaking Macy?s for Wal-Mart; a slowdown in home sales tends to have a wider and more tangible effect. Housing is known as an "umbrella" sector, because a new home generally comes with other new stuff, from renovations and additions to washers, dryers and home entertainment. In other words, much of the seemingly quixotic summer strength in consumer spending grew out of the housing sector, and the housing sector may be about to cool...