Word: solarity
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...following a path already established by Motech, which rose 130% on Taiwan's small-cap bourse last year, outstripping other pure-play solar manufacturers such as Germany's SolarWorld (up 61% last year). Sino-American was another spectacular winner: its share price trebled last year on the back of a shortage in silicon wafers...
...Because Japanese electronics giants Sharp, Hitachi and Kyocera dominate the relatively small global market for solar cells ($6.5 billion in 2004), you'd expect that sales growth for smaller players might be hard to achieve. But industry executives say their prospects are bright, because of an opportunity that is opening up in the U.S. In January, the California legislature passed a law that earmarks $3 billion to subsidize solar-panel purchases by homeowners over the next 10 years. The goal is to add 3,000 megawatts of solar energy to the state's power grid, which is more than...
...subsidies are a must. Even with higher oil and energy prices, the cost of generating electricity from the sun remains at least three times more expensive than prices that homeowners normally pay their local electric utility. So long as that is the case, it's hard to see how solar power can grow into a mass-market business. Many companies are trying to make that happen through technological improvements that boost the output of solar cells. Taiwan's solar startups take a different tack: they're trying to reduce the cost of solar power through more efficient production processes. Motech...
...That expansion could pose a danger to investors. Even though solar power manufacturers are relatively few in number, additional factory output coming online this year in Taiwan alone will outstrip the growth in demand anticipated from California's initiative. In addition, new players entering the market and competing for already scarce silicon wafers will likely drive up production costs, writes CLSA analyst Timothy Chen, who recommends investors sell Motech because it's overpriced...
...years, says Anthony Wilkinson, chief of power and gas research at CLSA in Hong Kong. Because it's difficult at this stage to pick winners and losers, those who still like the industry's long-term outlook may want to buy the stocks of several to spread their risk. Solar-cell stocks are having their day in the sun right now. But in the highly cyclical silicon-chip industry?even this promising new corner of it?night surely follows...