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...admission of that sort of nuance may wind up undermining part of the appeal of forecasts: how a single number can quickly jump from an economist's spreadsheet to a politician's stump speech or a businessman's PowerPoint presentation. "Forecasts satisfy a deep psychological need that we live in a somewhat predictable and controllable world," says Philip Tetlock, a professor of organizational behavior at the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley. "Those are essential stories. People just find the truth" - that the future is unknowable - "too dissonant...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Why Are Economists So Bad at Forecasting? | 7/17/2009 | See Source »

...Marriott, are still being answered. President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has suggested that the bomb blasts on Friday morning may have been related to disgruntled parties unhappy with his landslide re-election victory on July 8 or terrorist groups that the country was not familiar with. In an emotional speech in front of the Presidential Palace, Yudhoyono showed photos of his picture being used as a target by unidentified masked men holding rifles. "This terrorist action is believed to have been carried out by a terrorist group but not necessarily a terrorist network that we have known thus far in Indonesia...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: After a Four-Year Calm, Bombs Hit Jakarta Hotels | 7/17/2009 | See Source »

...when word spread that Rafsanjani would deliver the keynote address at Friday prayers July 17 at Tehran University, one of the country's highest-profile platforms, many opposition supporters hoped his speech would provide new impetus to the protest movement. Mousavi himself, rarely seen in public these days, attended the prayer service. Taking no chances, security forces deployed in force hours before the event, and authorities filled the prayer hall with government supporters. (See pictures of Iran's presidential election and its turbulent aftermath...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: In Iran, the Opposition Delivers a Sermon | 7/17/2009 | See Source »

...though, the speech was more conciliatory than confrontational. Rafsanjani made several nods to opposition sentiment, acknowledging that the events of recent weeks constituted a "crisis" for the Islamic Republic. He also used strong terms to deplore the violence that broke out. But he praised the government's preparations for the election and said it occurred in an atmosphere of "healthy competition" and "unprecedented freedom...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: In Iran, the Opposition Delivers a Sermon | 7/17/2009 | See Source »

...fight for free speech and human rights in Russia suffered another devastating blow on July 15, when the body of Chechnya's most outspoken human-rights activist was found dumped by the side of a road. Natalya Estemirova, 50, had been killed execution-style, shot in the head and chest, just hours after being kidnapped from outside her home in Grozny, the capital of the republic situated in Russia's troubled North Caucasus region. The murder has sparked international outrage and prompted calls for a closer look at the atrocities that have been committed in the North Caucasus...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Killings of Russia's Human-Rights Activists Continue | 7/16/2009 | See Source »

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