Word: sprinkel
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...only member of the Board of Economists to predict a recession next year is Beryl Sprinkel, executive vice president of Chicago's Harris Bank, and he foresees a mild and brief one. His forecast: real G.N.P. will drop 2.4% in the third quarter next year and 3.2% in the fourth quarter, but start back up in early 1980. Alan Greenspan, formerly President Ford's chief economic adviser, also sees a recession?but not until 1980, and then so gentle that it will just about meet the technical definition: two successive quarters of declines in real G.N.P...
...anything to temper inflation, which is expected to average 8% this year as measured by the Consumer Price Index. Robert Nathan, who heads an economic consulting firm in Washington, thinks the rate may come down a point or so next year, but he is the board's optimist. Sprinkel believes inflation may actually worsen a little next year; the others see little or no change. And inflation will keep the dollar in trouble; Monetary Expert Robert Triffin thinks it may steady in the next six months, but plunge again...
...least, the five members of TIME's board interviewed after California's vote say they believe cutbacks in local expenditures for government services are inevitable; most pinched will be those with lower incomes who are the most dependent on publicly financed programs and jobs. But, says Beryl Sprinkel, executive vice president of Chicago's Harris Trust & Savings Bank, "in the long run, the lower-income people will benefit if the cut does what I argue it will: namely, stimulate growth and development in California. It will lead to more jobs and higher standards of living...
...properties, since private residences change hands more often than factories and office buildings; with each sale, a property may be reassessed and its taxes may rise. Says Heller of the disparity: "An abomination." Weidenbaum counters that "by reducing business costs, Proposition 13 ought to spur business expansion and employment." Sprinkel favors a proposal defeated by California voters in 1973 limiting total state spending to a fixed percentage of personal income in the state. Both Sprinkel and Weidenbaum also argue that federal income taxes ought to be indexed to inflation. Otherwise, says Weidenbaum, "if you get a 6% cost of living...
...will be introduced into the allocation of funds." Still, argues Weidenbaum, "it was a ridiculous situation where the government was collecting money faster than they could sensibly spend it, so I don't think those who want to control the situation should be put on the defensive." Notes Sprinkel: "It will make local government more dependent on state financing, but it will also cut down state spending. If the states run protracted deficits, the quality of their bonds will go down and the interest rates they pay will go up, so the market provides a built-in mechanism...