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...fundamental problem is that economic models - series of equations meant to describe how different parts of the economy fit together - depend on historical data. If you want to know how high unemployment is going to be six months from now, you start with how high it is today. If the economy isn't stable and the old relationships don't hold as well as they used to, then the models break down. In recent years, there have been great advances in economic modeling, says Stock, but forecasts haven't necessarily gotten much better since the economy itself has grown more...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Why Are Economists So Bad at Forecasting? | 7/17/2009 | See Source »

Once we got to the villages, the culinary customs started to get even stranger. Our first morning in the homestay, I was handed a plate of peanuts for breakfast. Legumes and instant coffee? Not my favorite way to start the day. Some of my friends brought jam to their families as a gift, and on their second night, found themselves extending their hands to be served a spoonful of it to eat plain...

Author: By Kate Leist | Title: Taste Test | 7/17/2009 | See Source »

...mind, this is like an inner-city slum where there are criminal gangs terrorizing the people and cops that are on the take. We need to clean up these communities. We need to help the people of this region, and I think we'll see this situation start to turn around...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Fighting the New Narcoterrorism Syndicates | 7/17/2009 | See Source »

...President wants to accelerate the process, he may have to abandon his original hands-off strategy and start getting more deeply involved. Growing numbers of Democrats are arguing behind closed doors that Obama could ease their qualms if he were clearer about where his red lines are for health-care reform. While the President insists, for instance, that he wants to see a public plan in the legislation, he has refused to spell out in detail what it should look like. Meanwhile, White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel has been talking up the possibility of setting up a public...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Time for Obama to Step In? | 7/16/2009 | See Source »

...from outside her home in Grozny, the capital of the republic situated in Russia's troubled North Caucasus region. The murder has sparked international outrage and prompted calls for a closer look at the atrocities that have been committed in the North Caucasus, and in Chechnya especially, since the start of Russia's Chechen wars...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Killings of Russia's Human-Rights Activists Continue | 7/16/2009 | See Source »

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