Word: statisticized
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While Harvard sports aficionados typically think of the Crimson’s star wide receiver when seeing the name Carl Morris in the sports pages, it is the former chair of the statistics department who was recently featured in a column on ESPN.com. A slightly frail-looking white-haired 62...
Unlike the statistics that appear on the back of a baseball card, which are either counting (total home runs or wins) or percentage (batting average or slugging percentage), Morris’s formula was derived from a technique in academic statistics known as Markovian modeling, which he says makes it...
The idea behind RPG is not new. In 1977, Morris’ friend Thomas Cover, now Li Professor of Electrical Engineering and Statistics at Stanford, published an article in the Journal of Operations Research that introduced the precursor to RPG, Offensive Earned Run Average (OERA). “We wanted...
However, a garden-variety Statistics 100 course doesn’t come close to teaching you how to figure out an OERA. Morris’ contribution was to derive a simple formula, RPG, that calculated OERA without advanced techniques. “This [OERA] paper lay dormant [until] Morris found...
Morris’ RPG formula can be approximated by just three components. First is the on-base odds, or the ratio of times a player reaches base to the number of times he makes an out. Second is a statistic Morris calls batting texture, which is the average contribution relative...