Word: stillnesses
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Dates: during 1960-1969
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...majority of economists outside Government believe that U.S. business still has enough momentum to avoid what would be the first recession in nine years. They point to such sources of strength as record capital investment. Still, businessmen have a sense of foreboding. That anxiety has been intensified by the bearish warnings of one economist who was once ignored and ridiculed, but whose views have lately had an important influence on Government policy. He is Milton Friedman, the leading iconoclast of U.S. economics. "We are heading for a recession at least as sharp as that in 1960-61," he warns. "There...
Friedman, a 57-year-old economics professor at the University of Chicago, is still regarded by critics as a pixie or a pest, but he has reached the scholar's pinnacle: leadership of a whole school of economic thought. It is called the "Chicago school," and its growing band of followers argues that money supply is by far the most important and fastest-acting of the economic regulators at the Government's disposal. Friedman has succeeded in persuading many leading economists to adopt his monetary theories, at least in part...
...split by a rare public debate over whether, when and by how much to expand the money supply. Last week Vice Chairman James L. Robertson called for "tighter and more painful controls" to eradicate the nation's "inflation psychosis." Such tough talk reflects a serious worry that is still shared by the majority of the board's members. They fear that even the slightest move toward easier money or lower interest rates would be misinterpreted by businessmen as a signal to get set for another jolt of inflation. In the minority at present, Board Members Sherman...
...Friedman's view, was that John Maynard Keynes concluded that monetary policy had only a limited impact on economic trends. That led him to underrate the money supply as an economic regulator. Friedman maintains that Keynesian economists made the same error for decades afterward?and indeed, that many still do today. In reality, Friedman argues, the Federal Reserve in the 1930s had ample power to prevent the monetary contraction. "Had the facts been as Keynes assumed them to be," Friedman has written, "I could not hold the views I do about the role of money. Had Keynes recognized that...
...that loophole by imposing a 10% reserve requirement on borrowed Eurodollars. Thereafter, the banks circumvented restraint by issuing vast quantities of commercial paper ?unsecured promissory notes. Belatedly, the Reserve Board plugged that loophole by placing an interest-rate ceiling on commercial paper. Now, big Manhattan banks have found still another gap in the Federal Reserve's regulations. To raise funds for domestic loans, they have begun selling large-denomination certificates of deposit to foreign central banks, which have plenty of U.S. dollars...