Word: stock-market
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Considering the Yale professor's recent publishing history, this is quite a relief. In March 2000, as stock prices soared to record levels, Shiller released his first general-audience book. Titled Irrational Exuberance, a phrase borrowed from a 1996 Alan Greenspan speech, it made the case that stock-market investors tend to go mad every few years--and that they were at the time in the grips of perhaps their worst psychotic episode ever...
While the returns fall short of last year's exceptional 23 percent performance for the full 12-month period, they are comparatively strong given that they come amid a bear market that has seen the S&P 500 index, a standard baseline for stock-market performance, lose eight percent during the same July to April period...
...ability to balance on the simplicity-complexity fulcrum is producing results elsewhere too--in increasingly complex software that yields increasingly intuitive user interfaces (think the iPhone); in algorithms that show how the movements of schooling fish mirror the behavior of investors, making stock-market predictions more reliable. Murray Gell-Mann, a Nobel Prize--winning physicist and a co-founder of SFI, likes to cite the case of physicist Karl Jansky, who founded the science of radio astronomy in 1931 when he was studying the hiss of electromagnetic static that bathes the Earth--part of the same hiss you hear...
...question is not as absurd as it may seem. Hosting the Olympics can boost the profits of host-city construction companies and tourism-related companies such as hoteliers. But is there a correlation between overall stock-market and economic performance and the Olympics? We decided to do a little historical research by examining stock-market indexes and GDP growth for the host nations for the past eight summer Olympics, excluding the stock market-less U.S.S.R. in 1980. What we discovered was interesting but inconclusive. On average, markets in host countries showed a 16.3% gain in their Olympics year...
...China analyst with Macquarie Research. "What's needed is only a turn in sentiment." But that's dependent upon factors such as an easing of China's inflation rate, not on China's success in track and field events. "It is a mistake to try to tie China's stock-market performance to the Olympics," says Donald Straszheim, chairman of the research firm Straszheim Global Advisors. So a few years from now, when punters are urging you to buy shares in the U.K. simply because London will be hosting the 2012 Summer Games, remind them what happened the last time...