Word: stock-market
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...signal is working its way up the vertebrae," says Jeremy Grantham, chairman of Boston money manager GMO. But even the bearish Grantham doesn't see the reckoning coming tomorrow or even necessarily next year. And in the meantime, something with far more impact on most Americans' lives than a stock-market correction has already happened...
After the stock-market crash of 2001 and 2002, the Fed worried that inflation was so low it might turn into deflation. So it cut short-term rates even further, reducing them to 1% in 2003, while the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond--a key benchmark of long-term rates--dropped as low as 3.13%. The result: a real estate boom, as ultra-low mortgage rates made houses affordable at ever higher prices. Cash from refinancings and home-equity loans also kept consumer spending strong. By mid-2004, confident that deflation was out of the picture...
...worse than most people would have predicted on Sept. 12, 2001? There's been no successful second attack here in the U.S.--and very limited terrorist successes in Europe or even in the Middle East. We've had 5 1/2 years of robust economic growth, low unemployment and a stock-market recovery. Social indicators in the U.S. are mostly stable or improving--abortions, teenage births and teenage drug use are down and education scores are up a bit. It may well be that no other country has ever been stronger than the U.S. today--and it may well be that...
While private equity plodded along, Silverman built HFS into one of the stars of the 1990s stock-market boom. The company expanded into real estate, then rental cars (Avis). Its share price rose almost 2,000% in four years, and Silverman's net worth rocketed toward $1 billion. He was hailed as a genius. Then, in 1997, he merged HFS with direct-marketer CUC to form Cendant. CUC was an e-commerce pioneer, giving Silverman a tangential link to the Internet bubble. Under CEO Walter Forbes, now awaiting jail, CUC was also a pioneer at fabricating earnings, Silverman later discovered...
...while focusing on its best product: rechargeable batteries. But even her critics say that Nonaka may simply have been ahead of her time. Better-financed companies are attempting the same kind of corporate reinvention with more success. Archer Daniels Midland, the U.S. food-processing giant, has become a hot stock-market play as America's largest producer of ethanol, an alternative fuel. "The direction toward environmental issues is the right one," says Tatsuya Mizuno, an analyst with Fitch Ratings. But it's too soon for some CEOs to bet that going green will get them...