Word: stocke
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Dates: during 1990-1999
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...outlook would be brighter still without the currency crises in Southeast Asia that have thrown economies and financial markets into chaos. Though the 7% break in the U.S. stock market on Oct. 27 was "a greatly exaggerated reaction," in the words of Robert Hormats, vice chairman of Goldman Sachs International, the turmoil will hurt American exports and the profits of U.S. companies heavily invested there. But strong growth at home and in other big U.S. markets--Canada, Mexico and Europe--should offset much of the damage...
Though most of the Oct. 27 drop in the stock market was recouped the next day, prices have remained volatile. Sinai thinks, however, that the Dow Jones industrial average would have to sink to 7000 (vs. levels over 8200 at its August peak and about 7700 in mid-November) and stay there for a year to make people feel so poor that they would cut consumer spending sharply. Weinberg, meanwhile, sees a silver lining in market volatility. It may dissuade "Gladys and Gary in Indiana" from borrowing from their mutual fund or ira to buy a car or house. That...
Longer-range, the worries for the U.S. economy are more global than homegrown. Japan is the major world trouble spot. Since 1990, it has suffered from sluggish output growth, a stock-market depression and a credit crunch. Now chaos in Southeast Asia endangers Japan's exports and loans to the area. Japanese investors, desperate to raise cash, might someday dump holdings of American securities; that would knock down stock and bond prices and shoot up U.S. interest rates. Weinberg sees a 1-in-100, but rising, chance of that happening--but contrasts that with a 1-in-1 million risk...
...date March 3, 1923, and was the first foray into publishing for Luce, about to turn 25 and just a few years out of Yale. The boundless self-confidence that created TIME would sustain his second magazine, FORTUNE, through a rocky birth that was announced just as the stock market crashed in 1929. Against the advice of colleagues who warned him to retreat, Luce persevered, and so did FORTUNE. In 1936 he brought out LIFE. His last invention, SPORTS ILLUSTRATED, was launched with an initial circulation of 450,000, the largest in magazine history. Today, Time Inc. comprises 30 magazines...
...that brings me to O'Higgins' new strategy: beating the Dow with bonds. O'Higgins sold all his stocks in 1993--missing some great years. For most of that time, though, he was invested in 30-year zero-coupon Treasury bonds, which also did well. This year, for example, zeros are up 23.4%. You know zero about zeros? They are basically bonds whose accrued principal and interest are paid at the end of the term. The bonds are safe if held to maturity, but their trading price whipsaws depending on interest-rate trends. For example, Treasury bonds now yield about...