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...basically efficient. But what we know is that people episodically coordinate their behavior. They all become optimistic or pessimistic, and that leads to extremes. Even with the best of intentions, you can't anticipate all the things that are going to happen. (See pictures of the top 10 scared stock traders...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Common Mistakes Even Smart Investors Make | 9/29/2009 | See Source »

...Stock-market analysts, who are usually wildly bullish on far-off earnings projections, seem to have the same tentative take on the post-stimulus economy. According to Thomson Reuters, analysts believe that on average, companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 will earn 22% more in 2011 than they will next year. That's a larger-than-average jump for corporate profits. But it will be down from the 25% jump analysts are expecting for 2010, when the stimulus money will still be pumping into the economy. And it is far below other rebounds. In 2003, for instance, corporate profits...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Economic Forecasting: A Foggier View Than Ever | 9/29/2009 | See Source »

...fine line to tread. China's army of retail investors - its citizens are said to have opened more than 100 million stock brokerage accounts - is driven by sentiment rather than fundamentals. They expect to make hefty gains from IPOs as a matter of course, and so capping price rises even temporarily may turn off many of them...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Why China's Nasdaq Is No GEM | 9/28/2009 | See Source »

...China launching a new stock market board when the prospects for the global economy look so uncertain and investors appear to be souring on IPOs? Like many other counter-intuitive decisions in the communist state, this one also has a method to the seeming madness. It may not look like it, but GEM is actually an important plank in a campaign to tackle one of the country's most pressing predicaments: how to nurture small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which create nearly eight out of 10 jobs, pay 50% of taxes and account for 60% of gross domestic product...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Why China's Nasdaq Is No GEM | 9/28/2009 | See Source »

...There are indications that investor interest may not be as strong as expected. The Shenzhen Stock Exchange says less than 200,000 GEM accounts have been opened, far fewer than anticipated. But there are reports of queues in Beijing and Shanghai, where some brokerages say they have extended working hours to accommodate demand. Because GEM companies are seen as riskier than those on other boards, only longtime investors are encouraged to participate, although brokerages can register those with less than two years' investing experience on a case-by-case basis...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Why China's Nasdaq Is No GEM | 9/28/2009 | See Source »

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