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Irving Fisher lives on in American economic history mainly as a laughingstock. He was, after all, the ninny who declared on Oct. 15, 1929, that stock prices had reached "what looks like a permanently high plateau." Two weeks later, stocks plunged off that plateau--not to return to their 1929 level for a quarter-century...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: The Myth Of the Rational Market | 6/22/2009 | See Source »

Emboldened by this work, economists began to apply their number-crunching skills to the postwar market. Chicago graduate student Harry Markowitz devised a model for picking stocks that was, in Friedman's estimation, "identical" to his artillery-shell-fragmentation trade-off. And in the late 1950s, scholars at Chicago and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology became enamored of the idea that stock-market movements were, like many physical phenomena, random...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: The Myth Of the Rational Market | 6/22/2009 | See Source »

...random one. But Samuelson didn't share Friedman's political views, and he never claimed that actual markets met this ideal. It was at Chicago that a group of students and young faculty members influenced by Friedman's ideas began to make the case that the U.S. stock market, at least, was what they called "efficient...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: The Myth Of the Rational Market | 6/22/2009 | See Source »

...Eugene Fama, a young professor at Chicago's business school, tied all this together in 1969 into what he dubbed the efficient-market hypothesis. "A market in which prices always 'fully reflect' available information is called 'efficient,'" he wrote--and the evidence that such conditions prevailed in the U.S. stock market was "extensive, and (somewhat uniquely in economics) contradictory evidence is sparse...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: The Myth Of the Rational Market | 6/22/2009 | See Source »

...Samuelson's MIT, to start pointing out the problems. Samuelson protégé Joseph Stiglitz showed that a perfectly efficient market was impossible, because in such a market, nobody would have any incentive to gather the information needed to make markets efficient. Another Samuelson student, Robert Shiller, documented that stock prices jumped around a lot more than corporate fundamentals did. Samuelson's nephew Lawrence Summers demonstrated that it was impossible (without a thousand years of data) to tell a rationally random market from an irrational...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: The Myth Of the Rational Market | 6/22/2009 | See Source »

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