Word: stockings
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Dates: during 1980-1989
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Last week's upheavals only made the economic outlook fuzzier. One of the strongest stock rallies since the crash suddenly fizzled when the Government announced that the U.S. trade deficit had hit a record $17.6 billion in October, up 25% from September. The news threw the world's currency traders into a frenzy, and the dollar plummeted to its lowest levels against the Japanese yen and the West German mark since the 1940s. The turmoil could not help pushing urgent questions into the minds of every reader of the financial pages: What is going on with the U.S. economy...
Their views on the U.S. economy for 1988 were far from uniform, but the majority opinion was firm and a bit surprising. Despite the stock crash, the plunging dollar and the scary new trade figures, most of the economists insist that America will muddle along next year with no recession, no significant rise in unemployment or inflation and only a modest increase in interest rates. Their median forecast is for growth in the gross national product, after adjustment for inflation, to slow only slightly, from 3.4% this year to 2.7% in 1988. Asserts Sam Nakagama of the Manhattan-based consulting...
...recession in 1988 -- perhaps 20%. Some experts doubt the economy could withstand another body blow from Wall Street. Says Economist Gerald Holtham of Credit Suisse First Boston in London: "The only thing that could push the U.S. into a recession is another panic sell-off on the stock market that hits consumer confidence...
...Trust, forecasts that GNP will contract by 1.5% next year. "Consumer spending is weak and likely to weaken further," he says. "Wages have just not kept up with inflation." Johsen Takahashi, of the Mitsubishi Research Institute in Tokyo, predicts a .5% decline for the U.S. economy in 1988: "The stock market will take another plunge next year, as will the dollar." The outlook, he warns, is "very...
...first three days of the week, the Dow Jones industrial average fell 47 points on Thursday, when the trade figures were released, then recovered a bit on Friday to close at 1867.04, up 100.30 for the week. Economists were encouraged that the record deficit did not send the stock market into a free fall; they remembered well that a less bleak trade report and a drop in the dollar helped trigger the Black Monday crash. The reason for the milder market reaction this time was that investors were no longer afraid that the Administration and the Federal Reserve will...