Word: stockings
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Until a late-day rally on Friday, sparked by word that President-elect Obama would name Timothy Geithner as his new Treasury Secretary, last week was another brutal one for the stock market, with the S&P 500 stock index hitting an 11-year low. From trading floors to kitchen tables, people are anxiously asking, What's next? Historically, the markets rally as one calendar year turns into the next, but could there really be reason to hope for a year-end rally at a time when the only precedents that seem to apply are the worst bear markets...
...have to look at those companies and see if they will truly make those earnings." If the denominator of the equation falls short, then the P/E ratio doesn't look so hot after all. And there is reason to think projected earnings might be overstated. An ongoing survey of stock analysts by Thomson Reuters projected as of Nov. 21 that next year's earnings growth of S&P 500 companies would be 11.7%. Three weeks earlier, that projection...
...course, that doesn't mean the market won't keep falling, getting even cheaper. For the global market, as measured by the MSCI World Index, to hit the valuation it did in the 1981 recession, stock prices would need to fall an additional 40%. (See the Top 10 Dow Jones drops...
...fleeing investors don't have to give a 45-day notice, as they do for most hedge funds - may be a different story. According to an analysis by TrimTabs Investment Research, in the last bear market, at the time of the bursting tech bubble, 4.3% of dollars in U.S. stock funds were withdrawn. So far in this cycle, which is inarguably more severe, only 3.5% of such assets have fled. "To me, this says there's more mutual-fund selling to go," says TrimTabs president and COO Conrad Gann...
...Again, the stock would probably rally. But the question is, for how long? And none of these moves address the problem that is really holding down Citi's shares. The bank has bad loans, and no one, probably not even the executives at Citi, know just how bad they...