Word: stockings
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...Wall Street has a Holy Grail, it's that long-sought predictor of future success. This election year is no different. In recent weeks, I've heard several investment strategists declare that stocks are sure to rise in the latter half of a Bush second term. But there's no reason to believe they will be right. Welcome to a forecasting folly called "the presidential cycle." In theory, it makes sense. As CEO of the U.S., the President can tighten the nation's belt in the first year or two of his term, then bust the budget in years three...
History does show some correlation. Since the Coolidge Administration (1923-29), according to The Stock Trader's Almanac, stocks have gained an average of 14.5% in year three of a presidency and 7.7% in year four vs. less than 6% in year one and year two. But within those averages lurk vast annual variations. Under F.D.R., year one produced a 66.7% gain. The market's lousiest annual return ever--a 52.7% loss--occurred in the third year of Herbert Hoover's Administration. So you can lose your shirt betting the cycle will repeat itself...
...other piece of soothsaying wisdom--that a G.O.P. President will unleash the bulls because Republicans are good for business--isn't even supported by history. Finance professors Pedro Santa-Clara and Rossen Valkanov of the Anderson School of Business at UCLA have studied the linkage between Presidents and stock prices. They found that from 1927 through late 2003, stocks outperformed short-term Treasuries by an annual average of 12% under Democratic Presidents but by only 1.9% under Republicans...
...testified that his boss had ordered him to share with Stewart the insider tip on Waskal's intentions. Stewart was convicted of lying to officials from the SEC, FBI and federal prosecutors when she told them she and Bacanovic had previously arranged an automatic sell order if the stock price fell below $60; and also of lying in her claim to SEC, FBI investigators and federal prosecutors when she claimed she did not recall being told of Waksal's planned stock sale. The jury also found that she and Bacanovic had "willfully and knowingly" worked together to obstruct justice...
...Waksal is already serving a seven-year prison sentence after pleading guilty to securities fraud over his family's sale of their own ImClone stock. Sentencing experts reportedly suspect Stewart will be sentenced to jail time, although probably a minimal term. But the conviction could deal a heavy blow to the future business prospects of an empire branded on the good name and reputation of its eponymous icon...