Word: stockly
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...easy to pick a stock that will earn you a stand-out return in a single year. Well, okay, maybe not "easy," but with just 12 months as a scorecard, there's a lot in the world that can put the wind at a company's back. In 2007, shipping companies had a fantastic year, thanks to a boom in commodities. In 2008, deep-discount retailers saw a major rally, in no small part because consumers were spooked by the financial crisis. (See the top stocks of the decade...
...barrel (per Goldman Sachs), unemployment peak at 10.5% (Fitch Ratings), the value of the dollar with respect to the euro and yen hit bottom (Deutsche Bank), 10-year Treasuries yield more than 4% (Bank of America Merrill Lynch) and small-cap value stocks outperform all other categories (Richard Bernstein Capital Management). As for the stock market more broadly? Strategists at UBS expect gains well into the double-digits. The CEO of PIMCO sees a 10% drop...
Wait a second. Will the stock market go up or down? That major discrepancy raises an important point. Making predictions a year out is a tricky - and unreliable - business...
...other end of the spectrum are the likes of David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff. He holds that this year's stock-market uptick can be almost entirely credited to government intervention and stimulus, and that the true, underlying trend of tighter credit and reduced spending will re-assert itself and be with us for years to come. "We have said repeatedly that this recession is really a depression," Rosenberg recently wrote...
...morning of the first Friday in December, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the unemployment rate had fallen to 10% in November from 10.2% the month before. Hooray! Headlines heralded the unexpected drop. Stock prices surged. Enthused White House press secretary Robert Gibbs: "We're moving in the right direction...