Word: storms
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...Storms tend to run on multi-decadal cycles, so it's difficult to tell from year to year whether the number of hurricanes is really on the rise. So far that doesn't seem to be the case, with the overall number of storms worldwide holding about steady - in fact, some scientists argue that warming might actually bring about a reduction in the overall frequency of storms. But the Nature paper argues that warmer sea-surface temperatures will result in stronger storms, because hotter oceans mean the developing storms can draw more warm air, which powers the storm. "Hurricanes...
...could be a sign of just how traumatic 2005's Hurricane Katrina was that when Hurricane Gustav failed last week to fully pulverize New Orleans, it was news. The fallout from Gustav was relatively limited, but it was still a major storm, with maximum sustained winds of 110 m.p.h. when it made landfall in Louisiana - strong enough to cause an estimated $20 billion in damages. And Gustav won't be the last this season. Hurricane Hanna gathered strength in the Atlantic last week, and Ike is swirling not far behind, headed now for the U.S. That's just...
...everyone agrees. Records of past hurricane strength are less than perfect, so it's difficult for scientists to be sure that the recent increase in storm intensity hasn't occurred before, in the years before the Earth started warming. And the weather - as we all know - is complicated, which means that it's difficult to model precisely how future warming might affect the formation of storms. Climate models work well on a global level, but they can rarely be applied accurately to areas smaller than 200 square miles - which happens to be larger than many storms. "It's not just...
Models will improve, and over time, we should have a better idea of just how much warming might intensify storms, and how that process works. But that's a secondary issue. Whether or not warming will create more super storms, we know that hurricanes will happen, and we know that they will strike human populations. The difference, as my colleague Amanda Ripley recently pointed out is whether or not we're prepared for them. As population numbers and property development grow in vulnerable areas like the Gulf Coast, natural disasters will get worse even without the effect of warming. Think...
...detect any signs that the left wingers [within the SPD] will be amenable to the change," says Klaus-Peter Schöppner, head of the polling firm Emnid. "Instead I think we are witnessing the calm before the storm." Steinmeier is "hated by the far left of his party," says Schöppner, because he advocated unpopular economic reforms, especially tighter rules on unemployment compensation, under Chancellor Schroeder. Moreover, he will have a hard time challenging Merkel because his specialty has been foreign policy - "an area where Merkel is already stealing all the thunder...