Word: strategists
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...there are some Old Economy businesses showing signs of strain for reasons having little to do with the U.S. situation. Take the auto industry - please! Even if DaimlerChrysler didn't have to worry about its U.S. business, it would have to cope with what industry strategist Autopolis expects will be a 7% decline in European vehicle sales this year. Autopolis' Graeme Maxton explains that the global slowdown just happens to have coincided with a weak point in the auto cycle. After record sales for the past few years, consumers don't have to replace their shiny new cars...
...tends to have weak domestic demand. Unemployment remains relatively high - in part because those strict labor rules make employers reluctant to hire - and Germans aren't eager to part with their deutschemarks even in the best of times. "It's saving for a rainy day," says Neil Parker, market strategist at the Royal Bank of Scotland. "But it's going to have to rain pretty hard before Germans consume...
...that monetary policy will only affect the economy with a lag of nine to 18 months," says Julian Callow, an economist at Credit Suisse First Boston. "So they want to be very sure before they cut rates." The risk is that they've waited too long already. Merrill Lynch strategist Michael Hartnett is holding out hope for a rate cut this month, but adds: "They are already behind the curve. The manufacturing sector will be in recession by summer...
Despite the sell-off, the probability of a repeat of the crash in 1987 remains low, says David Blitzer, chief investment strategist at S&P. Still, preceding that crash "we had a high volatility week and a high-anxiety weekend," he notes, adding that the current environment feels a lot like that. And so far there has been no cathartic sell-off, just a steady exodus, mainly from tech stocks. Market watchers would like to see capitulation--a panicky selling spree that flushes out all the worrywarts and sets the stage for the next bull market...
...There are all kinds of unforeseeable and unintended consequences of what's going on," says Barton Biggs, chief global strategist at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter. He's especially dour on the economy, saying corporate earnings will fall 20% this year and that before it's all over we will have a full-fledged recession with bouts of Japanese-style deflation. He's less worried about the stock market, though, believing a rally is imminent. (For more on his bearish view, see Personal Time: Your Money...