Word: stupak
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...though, the role of bad cop has been played largely by outsiders. President Obama has leaned heavily on many of the fence sitters and outside groups have threatened to support a primary challenge against any Democrat who votes against the bill. The final fence sitters are Michigan Rep. Bart Stupak and upwards of 10 pro-life members who are unhappy with the Senate's abortion language, as well as a few particularly vulnerable members, such as Virginia Rep. Glenn Nye, Oregon Rep. Kurt Schrader, and Pennsylvania Rep. Chris Carney. While it's crucial for Democrats to pass health care ahead...
...basis of conversations with a half-dozen key congressional offices, we can identify four categories of House members who will be crucial to Democratic attempts to pass a bill. The first group includes Democrats who voted for the Stupak amendment and yet opposed final passage of the House bill. There were 23 of these Democrats, mostly Representatives from Southern congressional districts, like Heath Shuler of North Carolina and Gene Taylor of Mississippi. It's safe to say that Democratic leaders shouldn't worry about which abortion language is preferred by these members because that wasn't the issue that prevented...
...second group will also probably avoid lobbying attention, but for a different reason. Roughly 17 Democrats with mixed voting records on abortion issues voted for the Stupak amendment and the House bill. These Democrats are not members of the congressional pro-life caucus but were concerned about what appeared to be federal funding of abortion in the original version of health reform. However, they would have settled for something far short of the strict prohibition in the Stupak amendment, and they are likely to be comfortable with the Nelson language. (See the top 10 health care reform...
Another 24 members who supported Stupak and the House bill are solidly pro-life. The key question for them is whether they are willing to accept an abortion prohibition that falls short of the Stupak language. No one in the House leadership has polled members on this point to get a head count, but the best guess is that many in this category would be satisfied with the Nelson language. A number of them signed onto a compromise offered last fall by Brad Ellsworth of Indiana - himself a member of this group - that would have strengthened the segregation of subsidies...
...final group of 16 Democrats voted against both the Stupak amendment and the House bill. While abortion did not drive their votes in November, these members could be in play if the House votes on a reconciliation bill. Half of the members of this group are freshmen Democrats who opposed the House bill because of concerns about cost or because they opposed the public option, which is not in the Senate version. The biggest mystery is figuring out which way these Democrats are leaning. But Democratic leaders might find that a slightly more modest reconciliation bill could swing enough...