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...southern states of Southern Kordofan and the Blue Nile. Carter downplays the likelihood of an African Yugoslavia splintering violently under pressure from multiple forces. Gration is less sure. "Disintegration is not a foregone conclusion," he says. "It's my view that we can stop this." So why is South Sudan even trying, when the price of failure could be war and the price of success might be Sudan's disintegration? Why is the world helping? The answers illuminate some harsh realities about the difficulties of engaging a rogue regime, the effectiveness of aid and the limits of international influence...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: South Sudan: Can This Be the World's Newest Nation? | 4/19/2010 | See Source »

...International Response Sudan has been a pariah state since 1989 when Omar al-Bashir seized power and introduced a harsh brand of militant Islamism. In 1998, President Bill Clinton bombed a factory in the Sudanese capital Khartoum in retaliation for al-Qaeda's bombing of U.S. embassies in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam. Six years later, Secretary of State Colin Powell declared Khartoum was perpetrating a genocide in the western region of Darfur. This was not a case of U.S. unilateralism; it was backed internationally in 2009 when the International Criminal Court in the Hague indicted Bashir on seven counts...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: South Sudan: Can This Be the World's Newest Nation? | 4/19/2010 | See Source »

...Sudan scholars like Alex de Waal, program director at the Social Science Research Council in New York City, and author of several books on Sudan, have argued the indictment was cathartic but counterproductive. It offered Bashir no chance to compromise, they said, while making him a champion of anti-Western defiance. Those views may have found traction inside the White House of Obama, who has favored mixing carrots with sticks and made a preference for engagement over confrontation a cornerstone of his foreign policy. On Oct. 19, Obama outlined a Sudan strategy that encapsulated this new U.S. approach to world...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: South Sudan: Can This Be the World's Newest Nation? | 4/19/2010 | See Source »

...This has some logic. The CPA correctly identified the key issue at the heart of both the Darfur conflict and many of Sudan's other internal divisions. Darfur is not, as Western campaigners often have it, a war by Arabs on Africans - or not exactly. There is a racial dimension to the conflict, but Sudan's mixed mosaic of ethnicities and tribes make a nonsense of a clear-cut partition. Rather, the war in Darfur is symptomatic of a fundamental division that has plagued Sudan since independence: center versus periphery. For more than half a century, a dominant Khartoum...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: South Sudan: Can This Be the World's Newest Nation? | 4/19/2010 | See Source »

...When the CPA was signed, few took seriously the possibility of southern separation. That was partly because the south's leader, John Garang, was a committed unionist. But six months after negotiating the deal, Garang died in a helicopter crash - and his vision for autonomy within Sudan died with him. With the West preoccupied with a high-volume campaign over Darfur, Khartoum was able to drag its feet on the implementation of a deal with the south that offered it only loss of territory and oil. That bad faith reinforced enthusiasm for separation in the south. "People felt they would...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: South Sudan: Can This Be the World's Newest Nation? | 4/19/2010 | See Source »

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