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...answer to the first question is no. Recapitalization needs will likely exceed what the current stress tests suggest since macroeconomic conditions are bound to be worse than the consensus anticipates, making the adverse scenario of the stress tests look mild. At this point in time, banks are still facing well over $1 trillion in losses over the next couple of years, even if low short-term interest rates make new loans very profitable. Moreover, according to RGE Monitor, real U.S. GDP growth will inch back into positive rates only toward the end of 2009 rather than at the beginning...
...Harvard University Police Department said yesterday that it is not planning to close its Allston substation as a result of University-wide budget reductions—even though a HUPD sergeant seemed to suggest at an Allston construction management meeting Wednesday night that Harvard was considering such a move. While HUPD is holding preliminary discussions to examine a number of potential cost-saving measures, “the safety and security of the people on our campus is HUPD’s primary concern” and will not be affected by budgetary changes, said University spokeswoman Lauren Marshall...
These days, Republicans have the desperate aura of an endangered species. They lost Congress, then the White House; more recently, they lost a slam-dunk House election in a conservative New York district, then Senator Arlen Specter. Polls suggest that only one-fourth of the electorate considers itself Republican, that independents are trending Democratic and that as few as five states have solid Republican pluralities. And the electorate is getting less white, less rural, less Christian - in short, less demographically Republican. GOP officials who completely controlled Washington three years ago are vowing to "regain our status as a national party...
...With that as our historic backdrop, I suggest that political commentators sit back, take a deep breath and relax. The Republican Party will not be leaving the political arena anytime soon. Take a quick look at Senate races in three of the bluest of blue states: polls show that in Connecticut, New York and Illinois, Republican challengers are handily ahead of Democratic incumbents, despite the fact that President Barack Obama won those states last year by an average of 25%. If history is any guide, Republicans will also pick up House seats in 2010. (Read "GOP Senator Specter's Party...
...demands that he wage a civil war that would be unpopular even with many Pakistanis who oppose the Taliban. Lately, there's been growing speculation that the Administration may be turning its attention to cultivating opposition leader Nawaz Sharif, who is currently Pakistan's most popular politician. Widespread reports suggest that the Obama Administration hopes to persuade Zardari and Sharif to share power in a new unity government committed to fighting the Taliban. But like Zardari and his late wife, the slain former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, Sharif has a poor track record in power, and is viewed...