Word: summerizes
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...summer will seem unusually long for businesses, people out of work, the Fed and the Treasury, and the tens of millions of Americans who have a direct stake in an economic recovery. The normal slowing of economic activity during the summer season will make any progress seem like walking through water. The seasonal drop in real estate markets could increase the fear that this sector is in worse trouble than it really...
...Along with the languid release of data there will be four unemployment reports that cover May, June, July, and August. These will be the four most important economic indicators of the summer. They will show whether the government stimulus package has been even modestly successful, whether there will be consumers who can shop during the holiday season that now seems to start in September, if there are buyers to participate in the struggling car markets, and citizens who can be taxed rather than being a tax on the federal and state governments. The news will be particularly bleak...
...other important and relatively new economic concern for the summer is oil prices. OPEC has not been clear about what it will do with supply. The Saudi's have spoken out for keeping it unchanged and because of the size of their output they usually rule the day. Speculators still seem prepared to trade crude above $60 on most days. A fair number of analysts see oil moving to $70 or $75 by Labor Day. The cost of a barrel of crude will move up if there is strong evidence that the demand in China is growing. Ironically if there...
...prices could still block a recovery. Just a month ago, no one believed that gas could possibly hit $3. A heavy summer driving season and forecasts of a cold winter in the northern hemisphere would transform the psychology of crude trading and make the majority opinion that oil will rise throughout the year, whereas in the early spring nearly everyone was convinced that it would fall...
...summer is normally a bit of a break, even for the downhearted. This summer won't be like that for most Americans. It will be an anxious four months as people watch the infrequent signals that may tell them how 2009 will end. It is a bit like Greek seers interpreting the flights of bird patterns for information about the future...