Word: sunni
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...Sunni Iraqis have feared Persian domination since before there was an Iraq. That fear reached fever pitch after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein. Sunni politicians regularly call their Shi'ite rivals tools of Tehran. If Iraq's Shi'ite leaders want the Sunnis to end their insurgency, they'll have to seriously distance themselves from the mullahs next door. If they don't, the Baghdad government will lack influence over large chunks of the country, since even with Iran's help, Iraq's Shi'ite militias won't easily defeat a Sunni insurgency stocked with Saddam's former officers...
...thing driving al-Sadr and Iran together is us. From the beginning, al-Sadr has made common cause with anyone fighting the occupation. (In 2004, when U.S. troops were battling Sunni insurgents in Fallujah, al-Sadr sent them aid.) Americans worried during the Vietnam War that if we left, Hanoi would become a puppet of its wartime patron, Beijing. Instead, four years after the U.S. evacuated Saigon, Vietnam and China were at war. When American troops are on your doorstep, it's easy to make common cause. But when they leave, deep-seated rivalries often re-emerge. Our occupation...
...troops will not do. One, they will not hold Iraq together. After nearly four years of occupation, Iraqis have made up their minds they do not want to live together. The intention of the Shi'a is to establish an Islamic republic that either excludes or subjugates Sunni Arabs and Sunni Kurds. The Sunni Arabs, who make up about 20% of Iraq's population, know they've lost and their only option is to retreat into the desert and create their own country. The Kurds, for their part, already have their own country. It's just a matter of building...
...While we're at it, an additional 21,500 troops also cannot do anything about the other forces undermining Bush's Iraq, including Moqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army, the Sunni insurgency in Anbar, and Syria. We'd need a surge of 500,000 troops to deal with them...
...this does not mean we cannot use the 21,500 troops. During the next two years, Iraq's breakup will occur with or without us. Baghdad will inexorably fall to the Shi'a. "They get the big bonanza," as one Sunni bitterly put it. Anbar, Ramadi, Fallujah and much of the upper Euphrates Valley are practically a solid Sunni green now. There are still mixed towns and provinces here and there, but it's just a matter of time before their minorities pick up and leave for the security of their...