Word: surpluses
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Dates: during 1970-1979
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...stressing the need for a much more expansive program, Nathan points to the budget's projections for the so-called full-employment surplus. That is a significant figure designed to show what the budget would be if unemployment were only 4% and the economy were operating at optimum capacity...
Thus it can serve as a guide as to how much stimulus might be needed to spur a sluggish economy. The greater the budget surplus is by this measurement, the more the economy is reined in and deflated. Yet, notes Nathan, while the jobless rate will continue to hover at unacceptably high rates, the Administration estimates that the full-employment surpluses will be large and sharply rising: $12 billion in fiscal 1976, $29 billion in 1977, $33 billion in 1978, $45 billion in 1979, $61 billion...
Lately, however, a kind of new optimism about the future size and strain-causing potential of OPEC surpluses has been gaining vogue. Several revisionist studies suggest that the OPEC surpluses may not be all that troublesome. The most sanguine of these, a "scenario" published last month by Manhattan's Morgan Guaranty Trust Co., estimates that OPEC's total surplus could peak at $248 billion in 1978, and diminish to $179 billion by the decade's end. The World Bank sharply revised its earlier prediction for 1980 down to $250 billion, expressed in 1974 dollars (that figure does...
When estimating the surplus for 1980, the optimists tend to lump the cartel countries together. But the populous nations (Iran, Venezuela, Nigeria) may register payments deficits in several years, while the lightly populated countries of the Persian Gulf will be building ever bigger surpluses. The Morgan Guaranty report concedes that in 1980, Saudi Arabia's surplus will bulge at $100 billion, by far the world's highest...
Cartel Break-Up. The super-optimistic scenario is that some OPEC nations that run into deficits will try to increase revenues by stepping up oil production. If demand does not increase at the same time, they will ask Saudi Arabia and the other surplus countries to cut back their own output to keep the cartel's production constant. And that could break up OPEC...