Word: surveys
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...least until you consider how many other economic forecasters got it wrong. Dozens of states have found themselves with budget shortfalls, some quite massive, partly because economists weren't ratcheting down expectations of tax revenue nearly fast enough. In late November, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters indicated GDP would decline at an annual pace of 1.1% for the first three months of 2009. The economy proceeded to shrink at a pace of 5.5%. (See what to expect when the recession ends...
Even with averaging, though, forecasts can still be wildly disappointing - as the Philadelphia Fed's Survey of Professional Forecasters shows. In mid-February, the economists collectively predicted a second-quarter unemployment rate of 8.3%. The difference between that and the actual figure, 9.3%, translates into 1.5 million more people unemployed...
...bigger issue that divides economists is whether China's growth spurt is sustainable. Goldman Sachs and several other major investment banks are increasing their China growth forecasts for the rest of this year and into 2010. Strong retail sales and household-survey data show that consumption is contributing to growth and may help sustain it even if government spending levels off. (See pictures of China's investment in Africa...
...Even where it did score well in the survey, Team France suffered stinging humiliation. Not only were the French denied the Best Dressed championship by the Italians, for example, but they lost second spot to the Brits - whose fashion sense is usually likened to that of the poll's slob champs, the Yanks. France's fourth-place finish for "Most Quiet" was tarnished by the Wagnerian-lunged Germans' walking off with the bronze. (See pictures of East Germany making light of its past...
...chagrined French reaction (and TIME.com's coverage of the 2008 poll) shows, the Expedia survey gets a lot of attention. This year's best-ranked tourists - the Japanese were followed by English, Canadian, German and Swiss travelers - are likely to point proudly to the outcome as a paragon of scientific accuracy. But this third annual bruising of French pride should be taken with a pinch of salt. There are several aspects of the survey that make its methodology suspect - and results significantly skewed. The poll ranks 27 nations' travelers over nine behavioral categories. But it questioned just 4,500 respondents...