Word: syrian
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...demonstration's message was both confusing and crystal clear. Was it pro-Syria? The demonstrators carried photos of Syrian President Bashar Assad. Was it pro-democracy? The demonstrators carried Lebanese flags. Hizballah was cleverly announcing its ability to either thwart or support the "liberation" of the country, depending on the hand it was dealt in the negotiations for a new government. It was also announcing that it was, by far, the largest and best-organized political force in Lebanon...
...Syrian withdrawal may be a major setback to Hizbollah, because Syria guarantees the air bridge from Iran that keeps Nasrallah's militias supplied with weapons. (For Damascus, enabling Hizballah in this manner was considered a strategic trump card in pressing Israel towards concluding a peace deal that would return the occupied Golan Heights to Syria. ) But the U.S. has made shutting down the movement's armed wing a priority, shared by Israel and, of course, legally mandated by Resolution...
...Hizballah's short-term priority, however, may be ensuring that Syrian withdrawal takes place not on the basis of Resolution 1559, which it rejects, but on the basis of the Taif Agreement brokered by the Arab League in 1989 to end the Lebanese civil war - which also mandates Syrian withdrawal, but does not require Hizballah's disarmament. Indeed, its success in fighting the 18-year Israeli occupation of Southern Lebanon, which ended in 2000, won Hizballah national acclaim across the political spectrum in Lebanon. (Today, it relies on a flimsier pretext for maintaining an army, claiming that it is fighting...
...Iraq, maintaining their private militias on the basis that they'll be nominally integrated into the national army. Many in the Lebanese opposition may be inclined to accept this proposition, at least for now, not allowing the issue of Hizballah's arms to detract from the broad support for Syrian withdrawal. Tuesday's rally was a reminder of Hizballah's potential spoiler role if it perceives it is up against a wall...
...same time, Hizballah's leader is signaling broad agreement with opposition objectives, even conceding that the time may now be ripe for a Syrian withdrawal. Most importantly, he shares absolute aversion of all the Lebanese factions towards any resumption of civil conflict. Violence against other Lebanese, he told his supporters on Tuesday, was a red line that dare not be crossed. Indeed, his performance led Lebanon's leading pro-Western liberal daily newspaper, the Daily Star, to enthuse in an editorial that "Hizballah is not a problem - it is part of Lebanon's solution." The question, however, is whether...