Word: taleb
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...centuries, Europeans believed that all swans were white - until black swans were discovered in Australia. A possibly minor moment in ornithology, but one that for Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a former trader turned philosopher, perfectly illustrates how poorly our past experience of the world can prepare us for sudden, unexpected, epochal events. His 2007 book, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, gave rise to a new name for these moments, both positive black swans (the rise of the Internet) and negative ones (the 9/11 attacks). Taleb has argued that much of the recent market turmoil has been...
...seven middle-aged men sitting beside me drinking tea with a sprig of sage have endured long stretches in Israeli prisons. Twice in the past few years, bulldozers had rumbled out from the nearby Israeli checkpoint to demolish the two-story home and ancient vineyards of our host, geologist Taleb al-Harithi. Armed with an Israeli court order, he managed to turn the bulldozers away, but he fears their return at any moment...
...Nassim Nicholas Taleb 366 pages 60-SECOND SYNOPSIS...
...spend our lives "engaged in small talk, focusing on the known," while Black Swans-- dramatic, unpredictable events--shape the course of history, says mathematical investor turned philosopher Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Sept. 11, World War I and the Wall Street crash of 1987 are all demonstrations that "the world is dominated by the extreme, the unknown and the very improbable." A follow-up to his Fooled by Randomness, about the role chance plays in life, The Black Swan is a provocative macro-trend tome in the tradition of The Wisdom of Crowds and The Tipping Point. Taleb draws on history, philosophy...
Some pointed to troubles in the mortgage business, others to disappointing manufacturing data, yet others to that Greenspan speech. "Our minds are ... capable of mounting explanations for all manner of phenomena, and generally incapable of accepting the idea of unpredictability," writes derivatives trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his soon-to-be-published book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable...