Word: taleb
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...Some pointed to troubles in the mortgage business, others to disappointing manufacturing data, yet others to that Greenspan speech. "Our minds are ... capable of mounting explanations for all manner of phenomena, and generally incapable of accepting the idea of unpredictability," writes derivatives trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his soon-to-be-published book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable...
...Nassim Taleb, a probability expert at the University of Massachusetts, says the first step to better risk assessment is understanding that most dramatic news images represent the exception rather than the rule. "Television," he says, "messes up the probabilistic mapping you have of the world." Our questionable math skills don't help either; most people have trouble distinguishing the statistical difference between one chance in 1,000 and one chance in ten million. "Both sound small," says Graham, "but one is ten-thousand-fold more likely." Understanding those numbers, rather than taking what Sunstein calls a "risk-of-the-month...
...Swiss philosopher once said that when you open a school, you close a prison,” University of Baghdad Dean of Science Abdul Mahdi Taleb Rahmatalla said...
...guess is that only a handful from Mubarak's most inner circle knew of the announcement beforehand," said Dr. Hassan Abu Taleb, assistant director of Al Ahram center for Political and Strategic Studies. "Mubarak has strongly struck back at the opposition and took the challenge to real action on the ground rather than words," he added...
...Mubarak's decision is definitely a giant leap forward for Egyptian democratic life, but the coming period is crucial in determining the true effectiveness of this initiative," says Hassan Abu Taleb. Still, once the gates have been opened on the principle of democratic choice in Egyptian political life, they may not be as easily closed again...