Word: talibans
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...head of state is likely to face many of the same problems that this head of state does. It will take a lot more than this election to shape the sort of governance we need to make a success of the war." (See pictures of the battle against the Taliban...
Washington's priority is a counterinsurgency strategy aimed at halting the Taliban's momentum by the end of next year, by providing security, the rule of law and economic development in communities where the insurgents currently hold sway. To that end, having Afghans participate at all in the election process could help legitimize the new political order in Afghanistan - which may be precisely why the Taliban is waging a campaign of violence and intimidation to keep people away from the polls on Thursday. For the Taliban, the optimal outcome is a low turnout producing a new wave of turmoil that...
Creating security conditions to enable more Afghans to vote has been the tactical priority of U.S. efforts for much of this year, deflecting from undertaking the development and reconstruction work deemed critical to the success of the counterinsurgency campaign. And even then, with the Taliban posing an active threat to polling in almost half of the country, there's a real danger of a turnout too low to legitimize the election. "If it's under 30%, there will be appeals by almost everyone to say that this is not a legitimate election, and that we'll need another election," Pakistani...
...mates are the equivalent of warlords, and he [has] done everything possible to buy the election long before the vote will actually occur. As a result, the real question is how many Afghan voters will actually stay bought when they go to the polls." (Read a story about the Taliban threat to disrupt the Afghan election...
...election is likely to leave the U.S. facing a tricky political environment for its counterinsurgency strategy. "No one doubts that any future Karzai government will still be tied to corruption, favoritism, and power brokers - with links to organized crime, narcotics trafficking, and officials who sometimes have links to the Taliban," says Cordesman. On the other hand, "If Abdullah should win, a man who has never governed or administered any significant body will take over. Just as would be the case with Karzai, Abdullah will then be faced with ministries that lack capacity, are corrupt, that do not serve most Afghans...