Word: talibans
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...columnist but as President Barack Obama's special envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan, will have to deal with ugly reality on the ground. Faced with a failing Afghanistan, the U.S. needs Pakistan's government and military leadership to work together to destroy al-Qaeda and Taliban sanctuaries along the lawless northwestern border between the two countries, crack down on Islamic militants at home and protect the country's nuclear bombs...
...favored partner, army general Pervez Musharraf, and the assassination of his would-be successor, Benazir Bhutto, with whom the U.S. hoped to work closely. Since Bhutto's death, a weak elected government and a recalcitrant military have failed to check the easy movement of al-Qaeda and Taliban fighters in and out of Afghanistan. That has forced the U.S. military to launch targeted missile strikes on Pakistani soil, a policy that has enraged local public opinion...
...change, despite a massive infusion of U.S. military aid meant to make it happen. Much of that money has been stolen or spent to defend against an attack from India; little has reached the border with Afghanistan. Army chief Ashfaq Kayani has made some effort to take on the Taliban and other militant groups, but fitfully and with mixed results...
...many carrots the U.S. can dangle before Kayani to get him to change old habits. But the Biden-Lugar bill does provide some leverage: it requires $1 billion in military aid to be conditional on more effort by the Pakistani military to fight al-Qaeda and the Taliban, and become more accountable and transparent. The U.S. can nudge Kayani along, says Stephen Cohen, another Brookings expert on South Asia, by providing him only with equipment useful for low-intensity conflict rather than with the F-16 jets, useful for conventional warfare, that Pakistan wants...
...NATO to fail in Afghanistan, it would not be comfortable seeing the U.S. prevail, boosting its position in Moscow's traditional central Asian backyard - where the increasingly competitive geopolitics of energy supplies has ignited a new "great game" battle for influence between the rival powers. While it needs the Taliban to lose, Moscow doesn't necessarily want NATO to win, as such. Instead, it needs the outcome to strengthen Russia's own strategic position in its former Soviet sphere of influence. The Russians have made no secret of their desire to have a greater say in the political outcome...