Word: talibans
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...Taliban is a busted flush. For nearly a year, Olson says, they have "failed to mount a coordinated offensive." In 2004, according to the U.S. military, villagers turned over more than 100 Taliban arms caches-compared with only 13 in 2003-leaving the rebels weaponless when they arrive from Pakistan. Most of their rocket attacks and attempted bombings are amateurish. "We've had Taliban trying to make [a bomb], and it's gone off in their hands, so they come to our hospitals for treatment," says Major David Flynn, a Bostonian from the 25th Infantry Division, whose men have...
...Certainly, Omar can talk tough. In a taped message on March 8, the mullah said that the Taliban would come out fighting after this year's snowfall melts. Olson, too, expects the Taliban to step up their activities during this spring, and worries that they might combine with al-Qaeda to try a "strategic blow," such as an assassination attempt on Karzai. But the Taliban's ability to carry out such attacks is waning. Two years ago, say U.S. soldiers and their Afghan army colleagues, the Taliban would come over from their Pakistani hideouts in groups...
...That may be partly because the Taliban's paymasters are losing interest. Al-Qaeda's rich backers have "focused their attention elsewhere," says Olsen-by which he means Iraq. Without al-Qaeda's funds to support them, groups of Taliban can now be seen roaming the streets of Quetta begging for food. Khaled Pashtun, the Kandahar security chief, says the Taliban still get a cut of the opium trade and receive donations from sympathizers in Pakistan and the Gulf. But for Islamists wanting to fund jihad, Iraq has become a bigger game than Afghanistan...
...Under pressure, the Taliban leadership is beginning to split. Omar and a band of 10 loyal commanders still conduct military operations-but only from a distance, according to coalition officials. One Afghan official who acts as liaison with U.S. Special Forces says that Omar was spotted two months ago in Karachi, more than 800 km away from the Afghan field of battle, though Abdul Latif Hakimi, a Taliban spokesman, denies the report. "I've seen Mullah Omar many times, always in Afghanistan" Hakimi told TIME. If so, nobody told the Taliban fighter chatting recently on a radio monitored by coalition...
...Kabul, Karzai is hoping that the Taliban are now demoralized enough to consider an amnesty. Soon, Karzai is expected to announce a "reconciliation" with all Taliban except Omar and his top commanders. The president's envoys are sending out feelers to former fighters. Olson claims that more than 30 former Taliban officials have accepted the terms, but sources caution that these were bureaucrats, not true commanders. Karzai has been using money and tribal blood ties to split Taliban commanders away from Omar, insiders say, promising them a chance to run in this fall's parliamentary elections...