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...Such times complicate the standard central-bank playbook - which includes the seminal Taylor Rule. Proposed by Stanford economics professor John Taylor in the early 1990s, the Taylor Rule provides a formula for raising and lowering policy rates based on two variables: whether inflation is above or below the central bank's target, and whether economic growth is above or below its "full employment" potential. If inflation is at target and the economy is operating at full employment, then the Taylor Rule says that the central bank should set the overnight interest rate at a fixed "neutral" level, which Taylor estimated...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: The Fed Fights Back | 3/13/2008 | See Source »

...Taylor Rule provides less guidance when the neutral interest rate is shifting rapidly due to changes in financial conditions, which is exactly what is happening right now. Banks and other lenders are demanding a higher premium for lending to households and companies. To prevent the cost of borrowing from increasing - to keep interest rates at neutral, in other words - the central bank must cut the policy rate. If the central bank wants then to provide monetary stimulus to an ailing economy, it must reduce the policy rate even further to get below the newly depressed neutral rate...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: The Fed Fights Back | 3/13/2008 | See Source »

...clear that even these aggressive actions will be sufficient to avoid a major U.S. slowdown or recession, given the deadweight of the sinking housing market. With the standard playbook and tools like the Taylor Rule less relevant to the immediate challenges at hand, central bankers are finding themselves looking at stock and bond markets to help them decide what to do. The markets in turn are looking back at central banks, trying to guess how monetary policy will affect asset prices. It reminds us of the early Ozzy Osbourne lyrics: "You, looking at me, looking at you .../ I know...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: The Fed Fights Back | 3/13/2008 | See Source »

...October, Joseph Taylor, a Princeton physicist and Nobel Laureate, lectured before a large Iranian university audience and was lavished with media attention fit for a celebrity. Five Iranian scientists who specialize in food-borne diseases spent three weeks this past November touring U.S. institutions, coast to coast...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Using Scientists as Diplomats | 3/7/2008 | See Source »

...list of Oscar's missteps, I would add Gentlemen's Agreement over Great Expectations in 1947, Charlton Heston (Ben Hur) over James Stewart (Anatomy of a Murder) in 1959 and Elizabeth Taylor (Butterfield 8) over Deborah Kerr (The Sundowners) in 1960. At or near the top of the list of missing nominations, I would place both Rosalind Russell and Cary Grant (His Girl Friday) in 1940. Paul J. Corigliano, San Marcos, Calif...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Inbox | 3/6/2008 | See Source »

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