Word: teche
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...individuals haven't caught the same fever. They aren't doing much buying or selling, says Bob Adler at mutual-fund tracker AMG Data. But the swift tech rebound creates vulnerability for all. It breeds that old feeling of technology not as a business but a lottery. If the rally lasts much longer, there is a good chance that individuals will start buying tech again just when they should be doing some off-loading...
Perhaps the biggest problem with the rally is that it is directing capital to companies best left for dead. What really ails the tech sector is too much capacity, which won't go away until investors ration capital properly. "Anything that deters consolidation is a long-term negative for tech," says Richard Bernstein, a strategist at Merrill Lynch. He notes that telecom companies, in which overcapacity is greatest, have been sucking up 30% of proceeds from stock and bond sales this year; energy firms, just 25%--a frightful misallocation...
...parent company of TIME) is confident enough to have raised prices last week. Lucent is about to be sold, which will relieve some stress in telecom equipment. But consolidation has not gone nearly far enough, and with the stocks well up from their lows, the pace will surely slow. Tech earnings will suffer longer; the stocks will lag. I believe, as I said in mid-April, that we've hit bottom. But gradual recovery is what we need, not another rocket ride. If the froth gets much thicker, don't blow it again. Sell something...
...time.com/personal for more on tech stocks. E-mail Dan at kadlec@time.com See him Tuesday on cnnfn...
...phone. Ignore it, and your copy will abruptly stop working and refuse to budge until you do the right thing. Same goes for multiple installations. You can load Office once or twice, but that's it. Microsoft says this is to prevent piracy and that if you call tech support with a good excuse, they may bend the rules, but it's a nuisance...