Word: teche
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...Take the tech stocks out, and a funny thing happens. The S&P is down only 4 percent for 2000. The Dow, without year-old components Microsoft and Intel, is up 12 percent for the year. And the NASDAQ? Well, it's all tech stocks. But if you got in six years ago, you're still up 170 percent. The great tech crash of 2000 is just a little...
...Before the New Economy showed up, 2.2 percent growth wasn't shabby at all; now it's dire news. The Tech Decade didn't just produce Greenspan's "irrational exuberance," it produced his "wealth effect," in which fat portfolios make for long shopping lists. Consumer spending kept us afloat while the world sank, and now that the engine of our recent prosperity is misfiring, wallets are closing all over America...
...Internet business looks to be on a natural catch-its-breath break, waiting for efficiencies to move outside the office and wired-everything technologies to mature. It happened after the Industrial Revolution, too. But when tech turns human, we're an ordinary economy, and one in an old-fashioned business-cycle global downturn at that. Tech has not been around to prop up America this fall, and so the rest of the world is sinking too. Rate cuts are coming in the spring - maybe sooner - but the NASDAQ is drowning in its own dashed expectations. Greenspan won't be able...
...also a good time to be an old-economy guy. As the newfangled tech folk wallow in the remnants of their self-inflated bubble, Bush the oilman is primed to talk about old-fashioned Republican virtues like reduced government regulation, cheaper energy, smaller government and increased privatization - and, of course, a $1.3 trillion tax cut. It's all aimed at increasing the flow of capital and putting more spending money in American wallets...
...Which it might. This could be the real thing - if not a recession, then at least some extended humdrums of 2 to 3 percent growth. Even if the tech sector can bottom out soon and adjust its expectations accordingly, there'll be no 43 percent runup in 2001, and no gold rush to go with it. And with no "wealth effect" for consumers and no market magnet for international investment, America's imperviousness to global slowdowns should be greatly reduced...