Word: teche
(lookup in dictionary)
(lookup stats)
Dates: all
Sort By: most recent first
(reverse)
Five years to get even? My sense is that many, if not most, individuals harbor hope that tech stocks, which dominate the NASDAQ, will spring back to life much sooner than that. With the NASDAQ down nearly 50%, it's logical to presume it has no place to go but up. Logical, but not necessarily correct. We're unwinding a bubble, and it's going to take time. Even when the decline finally ends, there will be no fast recovery...
This is not a call to sell all tech stocks. Lighten up, maybe. There are plenty of other things to own, including bonds. Before tech lifts off again, some surprise sector will have soared. Who thought utilities would rise 40% this year? Reasonable candidates to charge ahead next are energy (if oil stays over $25 per bbl.) and regional banks (if severe credit problems don't surface and the Fed cuts rates). Get rid of margin debt, definitely. And lower your expectations for future returns. But stay invested. Everyone in my small survey expected the Dow to be hitting...
...Tech stocks are still over-owned. Most individuals, especially those who trade online, haven't yet given up on tech as the market leader. Institutions are getting to that point. That's why every tech rally gets squashed. The big boys are selling into strength to lighten up without going belly up. Before tech can sustain a rally, it must move to being under-owned, then start back the other...
That's a long process, one that will probably coincide with an economic slowdown (or recession) followed by another expansion. Thinking it can all work out in just one year is absurd. But so is the most pessimistic view. Technology spending is slowing, but only temporarily. Tech remains a long-term growth industry, and when it revives, tech stocks will again outpace broader market measures...
GIVE IT UP With tech funds down more than 20% on average, 2000 is a good bet to be the first time in 15 years that the funds lose money. After NASDAQ hit bottom last week, a spate of brokerages issued pleas to stubborn tech-boom day traders to give in and learn to invest rather than just trade. Hot but stable sectors being championed include pharmaceuticals and municipal bonds...