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...This has been an extraordinarily difficult period for forecasters," says Harvard economist James Stock. "Our models aren't really designed for predicting massive changes." Philip Joyce, a professor of public policy and administration at George Washington University, figures that in normal times, budget projections a couple of years out tend to be pretty reliable, at five years less so and at 10 years not much at all. "But these aren't normal times," he says. "In recessions, even the short-term numbers aren't very good, because a lot of the factors that go into them are based on assumptions...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Why Are Economists So Bad at Forecasting? | 7/17/2009 | See Source »

While these places are known as specialty hospitals, most do not resemble acute-care, all-purpose community health-care institutions. For one thing, they tend to sell themselves on the promise of comfort, if not luxury, with at least a few offering wine with gourmet meals and on-campus hotels for friends and family. More importantly, about half don't have any kind of emergency department and of those that do, more than half have only one bed available, according to a 2008 report from the inspector general of the Department of Health and Human Services. Even more troubling...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: How Health-Care Reform Could Hurt Doctor-Owned Hospitals | 7/13/2009 | See Source »

...viewed with singular tolerance in France. That's due in part to lingering French admiration and respect for insurrectional and revolutionary movements, and a national inclination toward stroppiness. "French history is filled with examples of rebellion and insurrection sparked by injustice that, like the Revolution itself, involved excesses people tend to minimize as they approve the wider cause involved," notes Groux. "There are social, cultural, historical, even nostalgic reasons for France's acceptance of behavior that other nations find abnormal - not to mention very real lingering French suspicions of capitalism and globalization...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: French Workers Facing Layoffs Threaten Explosive Action | 7/13/2009 | See Source »

...While speculators affect the market in both directions, commercial participants tend to put upward pressure on prices. If airlines fully hedged themselves in the futures market, the price of oil would jump enormously. The futures market cannot support hedging for energy, let alone for other things; for example, investors might buy oil to hedge against losses in other investments, like stocks. With speculators out of the market, an airline's hedge would have an even bigger impact, further raising the global price...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Why There Should Be More Oil Speculation, Not Less | 7/10/2009 | See Source »

...Affirmation-starved France usually loves global titles of any kind (one big reason French competitors tend to outnumber foreign rivals in quixotic contests like reverse round-the-world solo yachting races and France's annual international plumb-spitting tournaments). But the news that les français had kept their crown as the world's most troublesome tourists provoked a collective Gallic shriek. "The French Are the Worst Tourists on Earth," blared the website for Libération above a story on this year's survey. "Do French Tourists Abroad Do Their Country Honor?" radio-news station France Info asked...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: French Tourists: Still the World's Worst | 7/10/2009 | See Source »

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