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...Bush spoke from the East Room of the White House, filled with a friendly audience drawn from his Administration and honored guests. But the assembled crowd was merely the backdrop - the real audience was history. He knows he has lost the short-term argument, the one measured in opinion polls and approval ratings. This was a speech aimed at the long run. (See pictures of President Bush in the Middle East...
...Israel's declared purpose in launching Operation Cast Lead was to halt Palestinian rocket fire from Gaza and prevent Hamas from being able to rearm by smuggling weapons from Egypt. Israel remains committed, however, to a long-term goal of ending Hamas' control of Gaza, and it insists that the movement should gain no "recognition" or "legitimacy" as part of any truce - a tough call since Hamas is the key combatant on the Palestinian side. (See pictures of the Gaza ground...
Scenario 1: Regime Change Given Israel's long-term goal of ousting Hamas in Gaza, some key military and political leaders have urged that it expand the goals of its current operation and use its momentum to take control of Gaza City and decapitate Hamas. Most vocal in advocating this option is Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu, the hawkish front runner in the race for Prime Minister, who will portray any outcome that leaves Hamas intact in Gaza as a failure - bad news for his chief rivals, Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni...
Scenario 2: Long-Term Cease-Fire Israel has insisted that a cease-fire be "sustainable" by ensuring that Hamas is unable to rearm itself. An actual disarming of Hamas' current militias is unlikely without a full-scale reoccupation of Gaza, which would involve tens of thousands more Israeli troops over many months. Anything less would leave Hamas as the dominant security presence inside Gaza. So Israel's priority will be to choke off the supply of rockets and mortar shells, which have been smuggled through tunnels from Gaza and fired at Israel. The Israelis want Egypt to police those tunnels...
...recognize Hamas' dominance as an inescapable reality in Gaza. Hamas will claim victory from any truce that results in the crossings being reopened, and its claim may well be echoed by Netanyahu on the campaign trail. After all, ending the current operation on the basis of a formal long-term truce in Gaza will codify Israeli-Hamas coexistence. That's why Israeli journalist Aluf Benn dubbed the conflict "Gaza's War of Independence," an allusion to the conflict 60 years ago in which Israel established its existence as an intractable political-military fact. (See pictures of 60 years of Israel...