Word: tibet
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Until the devastating May 12 earthquake in China's Sichuan province, the attention of most China watchers had been focused on a completely different part of the country: Tibet. After bloody anti-Chinese protests in mid-March were suppressed by the Chinese military, Beijing closed the Himalayan region off from the outside world and made scores of arrests. Those moves brought widespread international condemnation, which in turn sparked a nationalistic backlash in China that some feared might imperil the smooth running of the Beijing Olympics this August...
...since the quake, in which nearly 100,000 were killed and millions left homeless, global attention-and sympathy-has shifted decisively away from Tibet to China. Indeed, some observers say support in Western capitals for the exiled Tibetan spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama, has lessened noticeably since the quake. They fear the shift is an opportunity for China to harden its position, setting off a new round of tension and violence...
...China does harden its stance or take other actions that threaten the talks, it will significantly increase the risk of renewed protests in Tibet, says a go-between, one of several informal intermediaries between the Tibetan government-in-exile and Beijing. "If the talks collapse without result, the Dalai Lama won't be able to control the young radicals who want to take more forceful action and say he has been too accommodating," he says...
...losing authority over exile groups like the Tibetan Youth Congress, which advocates a more militant approach. Without some tangible proof that the Dalai's self-proclaimed "third way" is working-including, for instance, an invitation for him to meet with Chinese President Hu Jintao-frustration could also erupt in Tibet itself, they warn. The Dalai Lama himself has expressed this fear. If the talks break down, "demonstrations I think will happen," he told the French news service AFP in late May. "Serious demonstrations-not only demonstrations, but also involving violence...
...analysts argue that fresh protests could break out as early as this weekend, when the Olympic torch relay passes through the Tibetan capital Lhasa, a route some protesters have claimed was a deliberate provocation. In an apparent concession, Beijing shortened the time that the torch would be present in Tibet but refused to cancel the leg entirely...