Word: tilford
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...even if Merkel says Greece is in no immediate danger, there are doubts about whether it can survive for much longer without outside financial help. Simon Tilford, chief economist at the London-based Center for European Reform think tank, says Merkel's brinkmanship is understandable given the political risks of Germany's conceding too soon but that she cannot hold out indefinitely. "It is implausible that Greece could get through the rest of this year unaided," he says. "Ultimately, the Germans will put something on the table. They will always defend the stability of the euro...
...policies have left the country drowning in red ink. National debt is expected to rise to 125% of GDP in 2010, the highest in the euro zone. "If you want an example of a political élite that thought membership of the euro zone was a panacea," says Simon Tilford, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform in London, "you don't need to look further than Greece. They're in very serious trouble." (See pictures of the global economic crisis...
...needs to rebalance its books. What's more, reviving growth will mean shifting from an economy founded on domestic consumption to one driven by exports. "That's going to be extremely difficult, given that [the Greeks have] allowed their cost competitiveness within the euro zone to erode massively," says Tilford. "We're still seeing big increases in Greece's wages." (See the top 10 worst business deals...
...Irish haven't shied from cutting their cloth in recent months. In his budget announced Dec. 9, for instance, Lenihan unleashed deeply unpopular cuts in public-sector pay that look set to trigger strike action. But when it comes to a spending squeeze of their own, says Tilford, "the Greeks are a long way from recognizing that they really have no choice." (Read "Ireland's Economy: Celtic Crunch Time...
...logic for Europe is simple. The E.U. has pledged to slash greenhouse gas pollution by a fifth of 1990 levels by 2020. But the bloc's Emission Trading Scheme only covers around 40% of its emissions. The U.S. plan, by comparison, will cover roughly double that portion, says Simon Tilford, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform in London. (Unlike the U.S., Europe, didn't include the petroleum sector in its own scheme, preferring to more heavily tax the industry instead.) Extending the "fiendishly complicated" system, as Tilford calls it, would be enormously difficult. Brussels "is worried that this...