Word: tonights
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...first round of data from exit polls is out, and there are some demographic trends that may (or may not!) tell us something about what to expect tonight. But remember: Exit polls are compiled from interviews with voters as they leave polling places. They are notoriously unreliable...
California: The Twelve Props, 11:00 a.m. E.T. While it looks like the choice for President will be an easy one for most Californians - polls in California show Obama leading here 56.3% to 36.6% - chances are, a number of voters are shuffling through some paperwork tonight trying to get a bead on the 12 propositions that will be on the state's ballot. From gay marriage to farm animals' quarters to the state's energy policy, voters have a lot of decisions to make. Proposition 2 - whose opponents and proponents have raised millions in their fights - would require roomier confinements...
...pundits are already warning that Obama could overreach, that Democratic congressional leaders are still unpopular, that this is still a center-right country. But it wasn't tonight. Obama will have the luxury of taking office at a time when the GOP is the AIG of electoral politics, when his predecessor has set the lowest bar since James Buchanan, when a supposedly conservative Administration just started nationalizing the banking system, when the public is desperate for change. What is it about tonight's results that suggests Obama should be afraid of progressive action on the cusp of a depression...
...those are questions for another day. The big news tonight is that whether or not there's a Bradley effect, it's nowhere near as big as the Bush effect. And now a guy who would have had to ride the back of the bus in some of this country when he was a kid has grown up to run this country. Historians will remember that...
After exit polls got a deservedly bad reputation for initially predicting a John Kerry win in 2004, pundits and politicians alike were hesitant to put their faith in the early-voting numbers. So when the exit polls tonight came out showing very positive data for Barack Obama, Democrats weren't, understandably, ready to declare victory...