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...first question is no. Recapitalization needs will likely exceed what the current stress tests suggest since macroeconomic conditions are bound to be worse than the consensus anticipates, making the adverse scenario of the stress tests look mild. At this point in time, banks are still facing well over $1 trillion in losses over the next couple of years, even if low short-term interest rates make new loans very profitable. Moreover, according to RGE Monitor, real U.S. GDP growth will inch back into positive rates only toward the end of 2009 rather than at the beginning of the second half...
...swine flu" was supposed to bring global commerce to a halt, drive global GDP down by 5%, and cost the economies across the world as much as $3 trillion dollars. In the process, as many as a million people were supposed to die. The forecasts for what the flu might have done to damage an already weak global economy shows many of the weaknesses of the of the press, world health monitoring agencies, and economists. The worst case about something is often by far and away the least probable case. Implying that the worst case is the probable case tests...
...attention, the GOP alternative is not just a p.r. disaster. It's a radical document, making Bush's tax cuts permanent while adding about $3 trillion in new tax cuts skewed toward the rich. It would replace almost all the stimulus - including tax cuts for workers as well as spending on schools, infrastructure and clean energy - with a capital gains-tax holiday for investors. Oh, and it would shrink the budget by replacing Medicare with vouchers, turning Medicaid into block grants, means-testing Social Security and freezing everything else except defense and veterans' spending for five years, putting programs...
...first thing Republicans must do is move past the current definition of conservative. Let's face it. American conservatism is now associated with wasteful spending, military adventurism and ideological conformity. The GOP took a $155 billion surplus and turned it into a $1.5 trillion debt. George W. Bush and the Republican Congress also allowed federal spending to grow at its fastest clip since the Great Society, while adding a $7 trillion burden to a Medicare program already headed toward bankruptcy...
...started this whole debacle, but lots more losses - from prime mortgages, credit cards, commercial real estate, you name it - are still to come. Morgan Stanley economist Richard Berner estimated on Tuesday that even in the most bullish case, banks and other lenders have only recognized about half the $1.7 trillion in loan losses they're likely to suffer over the course of the downturn. In Berner's "bear" case, losses will top $4 trillion...