Word: truce
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Scenario 3: The Guns Go Silent Without a Formal Truce If the offensive cannot deal Hamas a death blow, Israel may see benefit in holding its fire, in line with the first phase of the Egyptian plan but not necessarily concluding a comprehensive cease-fire. It would simply maintain the halt to hostilities and even withdraw its forces on an open-ended basis. Israeli leaders saw Operation Cast Lead as an opportunity to restore Israel's "deterrent" power, which it believed had been damaged when it was fought to a draw by Hizballah in Lebanon in 2006. But the Gaza...
...Palestinian rocket fire from Gaza and prevent Hamas from being able to rearm by smuggling weapons from Egypt. Israel remains committed, however, to a long-term goal of ending Hamas' control of Gaza, and it insists that the movement should gain no "recognition" or "legitimacy" as part of any truce - a tough call since Hamas is the key combatant on the Palestinian side. (See pictures of the Gaza ground...
...more than 2.5% so far.) That would force Israel to reoccupy a territory from which it sought to separate in 2005. Still, Israeli leaders hope the military operation can deal a powerful enough blow to hobble Hamas. They still wish to see Abbas' authority reimposed as part of any truce. More realistically, perhaps, Arab mediators and the U.N. Security Council have urged that cease-fire plans restore reconciliation between Abbas and Hamas. Arab countries had previously brokered a national-unity government between the two, and Hamas remains the ruling party in the Palestinian Authority's legislature. But Israel has long...
...Egypt is reportedly proposing that an immediate truce, in which Israeli forces retain their current positions but advance no farther, be followed by negotiations of a full withdrawal and reopening of the crossings. Egypt will most likely agree to enhanced mechanisms for policing the smugglers' tunnels, but those tunnels were also Gaza's economic lifeline, and Egypt will insist they can be closed only if the legitimate crossings into Gaza are reopened to allow the flow of normal humanitarian and commercial traffic. That, of course, is what Hamas has been demanding, which will make Israel - and Egypt - uncomfortable. Neither wants...
...Policing the crossings on the Palestinian side will probably be the responsibility of the Palestinian Authority, although that will require new agreements between Hamas and President Abbas. Any cease-fire is likely to implicitly recognize Hamas' dominance as an inescapable reality in Gaza. Hamas will claim victory from any truce that results in the crossings being reopened, and its claim may well be echoed by Netanyahu on the campaign trail. After all, ending the current operation on the basis of a formal long-term truce in Gaza will codify Israeli-Hamas coexistence. That's why Israeli journalist Aluf Benn dubbed...