Word: tsunamis
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...disaster in Burma presents the world with perhaps its most serious humanitarian crisis since the 2004 Asian tsunami. By most reliable estimates, close to 100,000 people are dead. Delays in delivering relief to the victims, the inaccessibility of the stricken areas and the poor state of Burma's infrastructure and health systems mean that number is sure to rise. With as many as 1 million people still at risk, it is conceivable that the death toll will, within days, approach that of the entire number of civilians killed in the genocide in Darfur...
...transport plane to land inside Burma Monday. But it's hard to imagine a regime this insular and paranoid accepting robust aid from the U.S. military, let alone agreeing to the presence of U.S. Marines on Burmese soil - as Thailand and Indonesia did after the tsunami. The trouble is that the Burmese haven't shown the ability or willingness to deploy the kind of assets needed to deal with a calamity of this scale - and the longer Burma resists offers of help, the more likely it is that the disaster will devolve beyond anyone's control...
...coercive humanitarian intervention would be complicated and costly. During the 2004 tsunami, some 24 U.S. ships and 16,000 troops were deployed in countries across the region; the mission cost the U.S. $5 million a day. Ultimately, the U.S. pledged nearly $900 million to tsunami relief. (By contrast, it has offered just $3.25 million to Burma.) But the risks would be greater this time: the Burmese government's xenophobia and insecurity make them prone to view U.S. troops - or worse, foreign relief workers - as hostile forces. (Remember Black Hawk Down?) Even if the U.S. and its allies made clear that...
...open Burma's secretive regime. So paranoid are members of the junta about any outside influence that in recent years they have severely curtailed movements by foreign aid workers, forcing organizations like the French arm of Doctors Without Borders to abandon the country. When the 2004 tsunami swept over Burma, the generals refused any outside help. This time, though, the military announced it would welcome foreign aid. Three days after the storm, a trickle of donated food started reaching victims near Rangoon, although scores of other aid workers were still grounded in neighboring Thailand as the Burmese embassy considered processing...
...generals to even entertain the idea of outside help was enough to excite Burma watchers who have been waiting for decades for something - anything - that might augur a sliver of openness from the military leadership. Hopeful aid workers point to the Indonesian province of Aceh, where the 2004 tsunami galvanized warring factions to lay down their arms. But Burma's seclusion is more akin to that of North Korea, a country that gulps down foreign aid without reciprocal political concessions. And corruption is so rampant in Burma that NGOs worry about how much aid will actually reach the neediest victims...