Word: turkey
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When Russian tanks trundled into Georgia in August 2008, it dawned on the European Union that it should have been paying more attention to the volatile Caucasus and Black Sea regions right at its doorstep. Turkey - strategically placed between the Balkans, Black Sea and Middle East - is fast becoming a big regional player. It's no surprise that President Obama is fulfilling his pledge to visit a Muslim-majority country within 100 days of taking office by dropping in on Turkey. The new Administration sees Ankara as a key ally in dealing with many of its biggest noneconomic issues...
...Turkey is also key to E.U. plans to diversify its energy supplies - another objective that looks more urgent after the Russia-Ukraine gas battle in January that left people in some E.U. countries freezing and factories idle. Currently, the E.U. gets more than 40% of its gas imports from just one company: Russia's giant Gazprom. In addition, almost all the gas that comes to Europe from the resource-rich Caspian flows through Gazprom's pipelines. Yet the long-planned Nabucco pipeline - designed to transport Azerbaijani, Turkmen and, maybe one day, Iranian and Iraqi gas to the E.U. through Turkey...
There's a bigger problem: the relationship between Turkey and the E.U. is now so testy that even technical talks, like the ones over energy transit, are becoming politically charged. Turkey started negotiating E.U. membership in 2005. But progress has been slow for a number of reasons. There has been obstruction from France, Germany and a few other E.U. members who are not keen on a predominantly Muslim country of 70 million joining their club. There has also been political turmoil in Turkey, where the highest court only last year threw out a case on the closure of the ruling...
Later this year, the Europeans will assess whether Turkey complies with its obligation to extend its customs union with the E.U. (in place since 1996) to Cyprus. Turkey will not do that unless there is tangible progress in ongoing talks about a political settlement on the island. But for this to happen, big E.U. countries will have to lean more heavily on the recalcitrant Greek Cypriots...
...Turkey will have to do its bit to avert a crisis in E.U.-Turkey relations as well. The European Commission, in a November 2008 update on accession, told Turkey loud and clear that it no longer wanted to hear excuses for inaction. The E.U. wants Turkey to stop prosecuting critical writers and journalists; do more to protect the rights of women and minorities; improve the functioning of the economy, for example by getting a grip on industrial subsidies; and much else...