Word: turmoil
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What's behind this off-off-Broadway revival? Emerging-markets stocks were driven absurdly low by the global selling panic that climaxed last fall. Since then, there's been a growing sense that the turmoil has ended. For the first time in nearly a year, U.S. investors are buying more shares of emerging-markets stock funds than they are selling. But if you're part of that wave and are simply chasing funds with momentum, look out. Trouble lurks. The mo may shift soon. If you're building a permanent long-term emerging-markets position, though, now is a fair...
That's the dicey part. Economic turmoil could resurface for any number of reasons. Rising interest rates in the U.S. could slow American demand for goods produced in emerging nations, stifling the recovery. And Asia could collapse again on its own, perhaps misreading this year's higher stock prices as a sign of economic health when the buoyant markets really are just the result of bargain hunting by a lot of speculators. Already there is evidence that Thailand, the first Asian domino to fall two years ago, is ready to declare victory and backpedal on key promised banking and other...
These strategies do not tell the full story behind this year's profit rebound. The Asian turmoil that burned Hewlett-Packard, Rockwell and many other U.S. companies in 1998 has yielded to a weak recovery that is at least less profit-destroying than a continued collapse. Contrary to all predictions, the American boom has not only rolled on but also speeded up. And marketing errors such as Mondavi's are relatively easy to recover from in an atmosphere of rising incomes and free consumer spending. But even if the 1998 profit lag was an aberration, as many economists think...
That would almost certainly reignite the street protests that overthrew former President Suharto last year and usher in a period of renewed turmoil. On the other hand, the generals could opt for making a deal with Megawati, allowing her to take power, but within parameters defined by the military. Megawati?s father, President Sukarno, was overthrown in a military coup in 1965, which ushered in Suharto?s 33-year tenure. "The situation right now is unpredictable because it?s unclear what the military wants," says TIME correspondent William Dowell. "There are likely to be divisions in the military, with some...
University officials attributed the yo-yo effects of Harvard's endowment to stock market turmoil, not changes in alumni giving or troubles in the $2.1 billion capital campaign...