Word: turnout
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...lites and foisted on the electorate with little discussion, he announced last week a "National Forum on Europe" to engage dissenting groups and raise public awareness, presumably before calling another referendum in 2002. He knows he can certainly improve on the lackluster campaign the "yes" forces ran. Turnout was only 33%, allowing passionate minorities - anti-abortion activists, Greens worried that the new Rapid Reaction Force would undermine Irish neutrality, Sinn Fein members eager to weaken Ahern before the 2002 election - to swamp widespread but diffuse pro-European feelings. A similar anti-European coalition lost three earlier referendums, which gives Ahern...
...polls, at least not yet. More than a third of Latinos are under the voting age; and those who are eligible to vote often don't. Though the Latino and African-American populations in the U.S. are roughly the same size, 6 million more blacks are registered to vote. Turnout rates are lower than average even among more educated and affluent Hispanics...
...That word radical is one of Blair's campaign favorites. Public patience, however, is already frayed. Blair's legendary p.r. machine is now undercut by stories of its dark arts; former Prime Minister John Major denounced it last week for "spin and deceit." Turnout on election day is expected to be low because of voter suspicion that Blair's notion of a radical second term will be more disappointment, attractively packaged. Both friend and foe can now be heard in Westminster predicting Blair will quit during the next term. A longtime adviser suggests the Prime Minister will indeed leave...
...question is, what happened to the Hispanic vote? Turnout was apparently high in places like East L.A., where Villaraigosa grew up, and yet it wasn't enough to help him win. If a sizeable percentage of Latino voters ended up voting for Hahn, then that's really a tribute to Hahn's campaign. He took this election right out from under Villaraigosa's nose...
...think Hahn is more likely to win, but I do think turnout will determine the winner and whoever gets most of his supporters out will win. In that scenario, Villaraigosa has more opportunity because he is backed by the Democratic Party and by the top labor organizers. One of his supporters is the head of the county's leading labor organization. On election day there are going to be a lot of campaigners working for him, whereas Hahn will have to rely on unpaid volunteers. The other issue is that Villaraigosa does not seem to have sewn up the Latino...