Word: tysons
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...face-off between Blanque and Tyson highlights a sharp divergence in risk perceptions at the board session, which also included Moises Naim, formerly Venezuela's Trade and Industry Minister, who is editor of the Washington-based journal Foreign Policy; Fang Xinghai, the deputy chief executive of the Shanghai Stock Exchange; and Slawomir Sikora, president of Poland's Bank Handlowy w Warszawie--now part of Citigroup...
...much time, said Tyson and Naim. "Europe has a tsunami coming its way this year," warned Naim. He predicted that as the weak dollar undermines European companies, European countries will be paralyzed by a clash between businesses urging far greater flexibility and unions and other groups seeking protectionist barriers. "This is the clash we're going to see emerging powerfully in Europe in the next 24 months," Naim said...
...buying the whole world out of the doldrums. Even Japan's economy, mired in recession for much of the past decade, is growing at a healthy pace again. "There's a remarkable degree of consensus" among forecasters for U.S. growth between 3.5% and 4% this year, Tyson said. If they're right, that could be the fastest growth in four years (and a big boost to Bush's reelection prospects...
...everyone is buying that opinion. "I have some doubts" about those growth predictions, said Blanque. "Recovery is a bet on investment, and investment is running out of steam." He believed the U.S. still suffers from overcapacity--not to mention consumer indebtedness. Tyson agreed that the American consumer's ability to keep on spending will prove decisive...
...critical issue, Tyson said, is this: At what point does a growing structural federal budget deficit undermine international confidence in the U.S. economy? For the moment, Asian central banks are helping fund the deficit by buying dollars. That's keeping their trade with America on track and U.S. interest rates low, and effectively financing the worldwide expansion. But, Tyson asked, "how long can they keep doing this?" The U.S. Federal Reserve gave a partial answer recently when it abandoned a five-month-old commitment to keeping rates low "for a considerable period"--a statement widely interpreted to mean that rates...