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...Blair emerges as the pivotal figure not because of the international equation - in which the U.S. and Britain remain fairly isolated in pushing for military action - but because the American electorate does not share Bush's impatience, and has misgivings about going to war without UN backing. Most polls find that an overwhelming majority of Americans would back a UN-authorized war, fewer than 40 percent would support the U.S. acting without UN backing. And a new Washington Post-ABC poll also found that, like the Europeans, seven out of ten Americans would give the UN inspectors months more...
...UN inspectors' January 27 briefing of the Security Council, the U.S. continues to insist that Iraq has failed to meet its obligations, and appears inclined to move the discussion on to the "serious consequences" of which Baghdad has been warned. But France, Germany and Russia have all said this week that they see no basis right now to seek military action against Iraq because the arms inspectors have not yet turned up evidence that would, in their minds, justify going to war, and as long as Iraq cooperates they see no reason to terminate the inspection process. President Bush...
...administration on Iraq - to the extent of ordering one quarter of Britain's entire army to deploy in the Gulf by mid February - Blair may have a significant role in shaping the diplomatic pre-game and timetable of any U.S. invasion. President Bush is signaling growing impatience with the UN weapons inspection process, and administration officials are furious at France and Germany's rejection of any move to military action at this stage. The French and German positions are being driven by the overwhelmingly antiwar sentiment of their citizenry, and the fact that over 80 percent of the British electorate...
...British leader meets with President Bush at Camp David on January 31, four days after UN weapons inspectors deliver an update to the Security Council. And despite the Bush administration's inclination to close the case in short order, that may not work for Blair. With opposition to a war at this stage growing in Britain and Europe despite the prime minister's valiant efforts to stem the tide, Blair is likely to press Bush to counsel patience and press Bush to stay on the path of seeking UN authorization for military action. Blair affirmed on Wednesday that Britain would...
...After hearing from chief inspector Hans Blix on January 27, the Council is likely to respond favorably to his request for more time and ask him to report again in February. That may increase the inclination of administration hawks to simply discard the UN process Washington initiated last September, and march on Baghdad without UN authorization. Blair, for his part, will likely be trying to persuade Bush against such a course, in the belief that inspections assisted by Western intelligence are certain to, sooner or later, make an incontrovertible case for war. But the deployment of a massive invasion armada...