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...January - which is as early as the logistics of moving U.S. armed forces into the region will permit - he has only a matter of weeks to secure the requisite political decisions. And the Iraqi dictator is doing his best to slow things down, proclaiming his intention to abide by UN writ in order to deny the U.S. a "trigger...
...France and Saudi Arabia have strongly opposed the U.S. launching a war for regime change, but they conspicuously backed the Bush Administration's position at the UN - Saddam must submit immediately to inspections, or else. This was a clear message to Baghdad that nobody would restrain the U.S. if Iraq remains outside of the law on weapons of mass destruction. But whereas the hawks in Washington may have been hoping that Saddam makes their day by rejecting any such ultimatum, most of the allies that signed on to the U.S. position at the UN in recent days have clearly been...
...White House had to have factored in the possibility of Saddam submitting to inspections when it first took the matter back to the UN - administration hawks such as Vice President Cheney and Defense Secretary Rumsfeld had long warned that reviving the inspection regime could prove a dangerous distraction to the Administration's efforts to get rid of the regime in Baghdad. Yet without going the UN route first, even the loyal Tony Blair might not have been able to sustain his support for a war in the face of overwhelming domestic opposition...
...Bush administration's immediate response will be to persist in crafting a strong UN Security Council resolution demanding Iraqi compliance with various previous resolutions, and threatening military action as the price for defiance. But Saddam's letter has given Russia, France, the Saudis, Egypt and other European and Arab allies looking to avoid a war something to work with...
...coming days, the debate at the UN will continue to focus on what will be demanded of the Iraqis now, and how such demands will be enforced. Mindful of the danger of losing momentum, the Bush Administration will work to ensure that Saddam be presented with the most unpalatable possible inspection regime backed by the immediate threat of force. But Monday's letter suggests that Saddam's game plan is to signal compliance on arms inspections in the hope of isolating Washington on regime change. When the Bush Administration took the Iraq issue to the UN it signaled that Saddam...